The morning after 13 days – three all nighters…
And the Paris Agreement is accepted. The COP21 decision is agreed. What does it all mean?
I have been working on climate for the last 29 years. In that time I have seen lip service from most politicians, courage from a few politicians, venality from some corporations (Exxon comes to mind), leadership from others. I have witnessed opportunity after opportunity squandered for political expediency. Agreements signed and then ignored. Overall we have procrastinated and lost decades when we could have averted the climate crisis nearly entirely.
Now we are in it.…
You will undoubtedly hear some denounce the Paris Agreement for what it does not do. It does not respond with sufficient urgency. It does not use the levers available to governments to craft a treaty that is enforceable with trade sanctions to add some teeth. Those criticisms are fair.
Nevertheless, the Paris Agreement is an historic and potentially life-saving agreement. It does more than many of us expected when the conference opened.
It will be legally binding. It sets a long term temperature goal of no more than 1.5oC as far safer than the (also hard to achieve) current goal of no more than 2oC. In doing so, it may save the lives of millions. It may lead to the survival of many small nations close to sea level. It may give our grandchildren a far more stable climate and thus a more prosperous and healthy society. It clearly means the world has accepted that most known reserves of fossil fuels must stay in the ground.
1.5 Degrees
It is absolutely true that Canada announcing support for 1.5oC mid-way through the conference made a huge difference in keeping that target in the treaty. I heard that from friends and contacts around the world.
To avoid 1.5oC requires immediate action. Unfortunately, the treaty is only to take effect in 2020 (after it is ratified by 55 countries, collectively representing 55% of world GHG emissions). The treaty has mandatory global five year reviews – the “ratcheting up mechanism,” – but that only kicks in in 2023.
So in addition to the Paris Agreement we also passed the decision of COP21. It includes some actions before 2020. It gives us a chance to increase targets before 2020. In 2018, there will be a “facilitative dialogue” within the UN to assess the adequacy of targets and to prepare for new ones for 2020. The decision document is actually longer than the treaty itself and includes many actions to be undertaken within the ongoing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP process. Among them, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is requested to produce a report to COP spelling out what level of GHG emissions will lead us to holding global average temperatures to no more than 1.5oC above those before the Industrial Revolution.
Canadians can be rightly proud of what our government did in Paris. While I did not support our position on every single issue, I cannot be more proud of what we did on most issues, nor can I thank our newly minted (and now totally exhausted) Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Catherine McKenna, enough for her work.
What matters now is what we do next. Canada’s climate target remains the one left behind by the previous government. We have no time to waste in re-vamping and improving our target. We should be prepared to improve it again in 2020. But let’s ensure we get started. The Liberal platform committed to, within 90 days of COP21, consultations with all provincial and territorial governments. In his speech at COP21, Trudeau expanded that to engaging with municipal governments and First Nations as well.
Earth Day 2016 has been chosen in the decision document as the day for formal signatures to the Paris Agreement. Let’s all send a thank you note to Prime Minister Trudeau and Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna and urge that Canada’s new target be ready April 22, 2016.
Paris threw us a lifeline. Don’t let it slip between our fingers.
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Elizabeth May is a prominent Canadian environmentalist, a Member of Parliament, and leader of the Green Party.
Photo by Jmdigne
