Will the Salmon Come Home?

A volatile political climate makes fisheries forecasts jiggery-pokery.

by J. Cates

It's always difficult to predict where the fish will be found on the west coast, especially when forecasts have to be made in an atmosphere where there's always the potential for a new outbreak of political posturing between Canada and the US. The word from Fisheries Minister David Anderson is that harvesting of Pacific salmon in 1999 is likely to take place in all sectors: First Nations, commercial, and sports.

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) is making its salmon predictions for the coming season in light of the severe conservation measures introduced in 1998. Those measures were seen as necessary particularly in regard to coho, which, it was feared, were endangered in at least two areas, the Thompson River and upper Skeena. Those stocks will continue to receive special attention for the next five to seven years.

In 1998, the DFO's coho recovery plan included increased catch monitoring, restrictions on fishing, more enforcement, and an attempt to minimize coho by-catch. Early indications are that escapements for all species were generally improved, especially along east Vancouver Island, and the central and north coast. The escapement for the Thompson and upper Skeena coho stocks was only slightly improved. However, fisherman's union representative John Sutcliffe, who attended a Pacific Salmon Commission meeting in Vancouver, says the return was enough "to provide a basis for rebuilding."

DFO is slightly less sanguine on the subject. The results of the changes introduced last year have been "highly variable," says research scientist James Irvine, and escapements on the Thompson and Fraser have been "not as high as we'd hoped."

Marine survival is down, and distribution "has shifted drastically" over the last few years, he says. The reasons for this state of flux include such factors as salinity, temperature, and food sources. The coho that used to be in the Strait of Georgia, for example, have shifted to outside the Strait. (Information about the importance of forage fish to salmon can be found in the Dec. 98/Jan. 99 issue of the Watershed Sentinel pp. 9-10.)

Even so, Anderson says that for some selected coho areas, sports fishing will be allowed, and some coho retention may be possible, both in terminal hatchery areas and other areas that are removed from endangered stocks.

On the north coast, Anderson expects the Nass River sockeye returns to be adequate for both First Nations and commercial purposes, but Skeena River returns are expected to be poor. He further predicts that pink and chum returns will be below average on the north coast, but should be adequate for the purposes of all sectors on the central coast.

Farther south, Fraser River sockeye returns are expected to be down from the last two years, but, again, Anderson says there should be enough for all fisheries.

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[From WS February/March 1999]

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