The climate change debate creates an Orwellian inversion of reality.
by Maureen Sager
When a man of the stature of John Fraser uses the words "Orwellian inversion of reality" to describe the political debate about climate change, you sit up and listen.
Fraser was Environment Minister under Brian Mulroney and then Canadian Ambassador for the Environment to the United Nations and now is the Chair of the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council (PFRCC). He was speaking in October at the Council's first workshop, Climate Change and Salmon Stocks. The federal and provincial governments established the Council in September 1998 as an independent body with no vested interest to act as a public watchdog agency over the health of fish and their habitat.
In a strong opening address, Fraser described the views of those opposed to reductions of greenhouse gas emissions as "junk science."
"There is evidence we cannot disregard," he said, describing the present situation as "a global experiment second only to nuclear war." He told the workshop that "tropical forests are dying back and the Amazon Basin could be a desert by 2050," if steps to cutting emissions are not begun now. The boreal forest and Arctic tundra have switched from being a sink for carbon dioxide and become a source. "It took 3.8 billion years of evolution to make this planet livable," he reminded us and lamented that humans have taken only 150 years to bring us to this situation. Tragically, Canada's rate of greenhouse gas emissions is increasing by 1.5% annually.
Henry Hengeveld, senior advisor on climate change from Environment Canada, emphasized there is basic science behind the concept of climate change. Analysis of Antarctic ice cores shows that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are 30% higher now than in the last millions of years, and this build-up is linked to temperature changes. There is also a huge increase in methane gases. Globally, 1998 was the warmest year since record keeping began, and the 1990s, the warmest decade. Changes in the last 30 years are unprecedented in the last 1,000 years. In the ocean, there have been changes in deep and surface circulation, and natural variability cannot explain all the changes.
Dr. Richard (Dick) Beamish, senior scientist from Fisheries and Oceans Canada's (FOC) Pacific Biological Station in Nanaimo, spoke on "Why a Strategy for Managing Salmon in a Changing Climate is Urgently Needed." He said it is difficult to forecast what "ecosystem reorganizations" will take place but they will be extensive. "Global warming is a serious threat," he said and noted that "catches are at historic high levels in the North Pacific but in Canada are at historic lows." Coho marine survival in the Strait of Georgia, Puget Sound and off the coast of Washington and Oregon has declined. This started in the late 1980s and synchronizes with climate change as he showed with a graph. He emphasized we must do two things without fail if we expect salmon to survive: protect forest habitat and respect marine habitat.
Arnie Narcisse, Interior Co-Chair of the Aboriginal Fisheries Commission and manager of the Nicola Watershed Stewardship and Fisheries Authority, mentioned a song that kept running through his head as he was driving down to the Workshop: it's called Song on the Road to Hell by Chris Reid. "Impacts of global warming are already happening," he said. "The Aleutian low means salmon must travel seven to nine days more and get back late. This means they meet the high flows at Hell's Gate that are caused by cutting down too many trees. This happened in 1997."
"We need to increase Fisheries Renewal BC dollar," Narcisse said. "We need a tax on greenhouse gas emissions."
Frank Whitney, Institute of Ocean Sciences, FOC, studies climate-induced variability in nutrient supply to the upper ocean. He warned the Workshop that a distinct warming trend is affecting zoo- and phytoplankton and there is less nutrient to support the biomass. "We have a research station, P26, out in the ocean and we have 40 years of data collected from there. Since 1950, there has been a temperature rise of .02%Celsius per year on the coast. It is less in the open ocean but all data show warming." He explained that there are fewer nutrients because the warm water caps the nutrients and they do not come to the surface.
Dr. David Welch, head of FOC's High Seas Salmon Program, was blunt: "If temperature increases continue, by 2050 the entire species of Pacific salmon will move out of the Pacific Ocean and up to the Chukchi Sea. "He said salmon now are coming back smaller with fewer eggs and less energy and noted that the eastern North Pacific stock was never limited by lack of nitrate and now is.
All harvesting of salmon should cease, said Dr. Carl Walters, Professor of Graduate Studies at UBC's Fisheries Centre. He said that the coastal environmental survival rate for small salmon is the big problem. The low survival rates are due to:
- Diseases passing from hatcheries and fish farms
- New predators
- Reduced food supply and productivity
- Correlation studies cannot be relied on and there is no concerted field program
- It is unlikely salmon can move if water is too warm
Dr. Walters suggested three steps: pray for adaptation and allow every surviving fish to spawn, make massive research investments to follow fish and find out what is killing them, and have patience and not fish again too soon like in Newfoundland. He added that it is clear hatcheries are not the answer.
Fred Fortier, a Senior Councilor for the North Thompson Indian Band and Chair of the BC Aboriginal Fisheries Commission, also emphasized the need for action. He called for incentives for energy production from renewable sources and disincentives for corporations who produce fossil fuels. He reminded the audience not to forget their spiritual connection to Mother Earth.
Other strategies were outlined by Gerry Scott, Director of the Climate Change Campaign for the David Suzuki Foundation. Scott told the Workshop that Canada "uses as much fossil fuel as the whole continent of Africa" while the government studies, delays, and makes commitments it does not honour. Instead, we spend $15 billion on new highways and manufacture new cars that consume 13% more fuel than a few years ago. We need to figure out how to achieve the same results using less fossil fuel. We need to look at countries like Denmark, where 13,000 people work on wind-energy projects and similar numbers in Germany work on solar power. We need a carbon tax.
In a strong ending to the panel on strategy, Lydia Dotto, author of Storm Warning: Gambling with the Climate of Our Planet and Thinking the Unthinkable: The Social Consequences of Rapid Climate Change, eloquently and passionately described the effects of climate change that she said is upon us already. She said we must immediately start cutting back greenhouse gas emissions by reducing our use of fossil fuels. "It takes the atmosphere and oceans a long time to respond to variations in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and the resulting temperature changes and any cutbacks we make now won't greatly slow the warming trend for the better part of a century." She called the idea that the burden of proof is on scientists "a trap" which diverts us from taking measures to avoid a probable series of catastrophes. We routinely protect ourselves with insurance from risks with a low probability to avoid loss of life and property but when it comes to the life system that sustains everything, the planet, we have been persuaded to demand proof.
Individual Canadians account for about one quarter of domestic greenhouse gas emissions through burning fossil fuels to heat and air-condition their homes, power their vehicles and other gas-driven machines, such as lawn mowers and snow blowers, and to provide electricity for domestic use. Industrial processes, electricity production and land use practices like deforestation and suburban development produce most of the other three quarters.
* Contact: Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council, 590 -800 Burrard St, Vancouver V6Z 2G7; Tel: (604)775-5621; fax: (604)775-5622; email: info@fish.bc.ca; www.fish.bc.ca
***
[From WS February/March 2000]