For those of us obcessed by this long-lasting Canadian federal election, Eric Grenier has pulled together a summary of the riding level polls across Canada. It is fascinating because he has included the 2011 election results and so you can see the graphic picture of previous Conservative support bleeding away. In the case of BC, and especially Vancouver Island, I suspect that Conservative support is going mainly to the Liberals. The NDP support is also slipping in some ridings, and “Second Choice” polls lead me to suspect that half of it is going to the Green Party, as well as the Liberals. There’s lots more time for the 10 to 25% undecided to make up their minds, before the only opinion poll that really counts.
What’s most important is to remember that those “lost” voters are leaving a party because they are not satisified. No one is “stealing” those votes — they are earning them.
And it is clear that Canadians want a change of government and are trying to sort out how to make this cumbersome electoral system reflect their desires.