A workshop report by Jim Cooperman
Climate change is quickly moving from theory to reality, with impacts ranging from warming oceans killing off the salmon, glaciers melting, and ski hills closing, to even the many hurricanes cutting paths of destruction across the Atlantic coast. In April of this year, the impacts that global warming are having on southern BC forests were the topic of a 2-day workshop held in Revelstoke. Sponsored by the Columbia Mountains Institute of Applied Ecology, the event featured talksby fifteen experts in climate, forestry and wildlife.
Environment Canada atmospheric scientist Bill Taylor began by describing how the planet’s average temperature has increased .6 degrees in the last century and will likely go up from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees in this century. Precipitation has also increased, especially in the winter. Bill explained how predictions call for warmer, wetter winter and hotter, drier summers; although he stressed how the incomplete understanding of climate limits the accuracy of any predictions. As well, the changes we are witnessing are also part of natural climatic rhythms. The question is not whether climate will change, but rather how much, how fast, and where. And while it is extremely necessary to lower greenhouse gas emissions, it is also time to develop adaptation measures.
Scientists and Foresters Speak
Trevor Murdock, with the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies in Victoria focused on the need to develop adaptation strategies. The first step is to identify the vulnerabilities, such as beetles and fires, then plug in projections to arrive at various scenarios, which can then be used to determine potential adaptation measures. For more information, see the Institute’s website: www.cics.uvic.ca.
Royal BC Museum curator and University of Victory professor Richard Hebda explained how the study of tree and forest distributions from fossil pollen in lake and bog sediments, in combination with models of future species distributions, provides a powerful tool for assessing potential consequences of climate change. A warm and dry climate 7000-10,000 years ago resulted in widespread non-forest ecosystems particularly in southern British Columbia. Consequently, major changes in forest species distribution and forest composition and structure must be expected in the next few decades. By the end of this century, cedar will likely be nearly gone from southern BC and weeds will likely take over, as forest cover is lost. Be sure to visit Richard’s permanent climate change exhibit at the Royal BC Museum next time you visit Victoria!
Andreas Hamann, with the Centre for Forest Gene Conservation at UBC, also spoke about the expected shifts in habitats. While forest are likely to extend farther north, the situation in the south looks grim as forests die out and are replaced by grassland ecosystems. Ecosystems in mountainous areas also appear to be particularly vulnerable. Beetles are not the only problem, as tropical diseases such as fungus needle blight are also hitting mountain pine forests. The implications for silviculture are enormous as efforts to match species and seed types to ecosystems will become problematic as ecosystems change with the climate.
Brad Hawkes, with the Canadian Forest Service, explained how climate change might have profound impacts on fire activity in the near future. An altered fire regime could have more impact than the direct effects of climate warming on forest species distribution, migration, substi tution, and extinction. Projections for the Canadian boreal forest and western Canada, based on weather/fire danger relationships, suggest a 75 to 120 percent increase in area burned by the end of this century. Integrated approaches would be required to adapt to increased fire activity in terms of social, economic, and ecological policies and practices.
Brad then presented a paper for Alan Carroll on mountain pine beetles. Recent studies show continued warming in western North America is resulting in an expansion of beetle range northward, eastward, toward higher elevations and into other tree species. As well, the range of other pests is expanding, including spruce beetles, loopers and gypsy moths. Young plantations in areas where beetle populations are high are also getting hit, especially where the young trees have been spaced and pruned.
David Welch with Parks Canada explained how a good network of protected areas free of other stresses is one of society’s and nature’s best available adaptations to climate change. Park agencies can also influence visitors and the general public, but this will require well-researched and monitored climate change impact indicators as the basis for adaptive ecosystem management, accountability, and reporting systems. Research on the synergy between climate change and other processes can provide knowledge to guide the mitigation of local and regional stresses, thereby restoring the natural resilience of ecosystems and wild species.
Lee Harding’s global perspective showed how the impacts on BC’s ecosystems will be determined by events far beyond the province’s borders. He pointed out how the planet’s cooling trend began to be arrested about 8,000 years ago, coincident with a rise in CO2 that may have been associated with the rapid increase in deforestation and agriculture in Europe. This trend intensified about 5,000 years ago coincident with an increase in methane released by flooded-land rice cultivation in Southeast Asia. The oceanographic phenomena greatly complicate the search for weather trends and consequent ecosystem effects. He concluded that Canada’s goal should not be to minimize the economic impacts of complying with Kyoto, but to minimize the potentially catastrophic ecological and economic consequences of lack of an effective international response to climate change.
Fred Bunnell reported on studies that show dramatic changes, apparently in response to climate, have occurred in arrival dates, departure dates, over-wintering populations, spatial occupancy, and relative density of various bird species. Greg Utzig explained how climate change could pose yet more risks to the endangered mountain caribou due to habitat loss, fires, forest pests, and changes in snow patterns. Daniel B. Fagre, with the US Geological Survey, showed how mountain forest ecosystems are potentially more sensitive to climatic shifts because of their topographic complexity and strong environmental gradients. In Glacier National Park, for example, glaciers have been reduced from 150 to 27 during the past 150 years.
Dale Draper, Director of Tree Improvement Branch for the Ministry of Forests, expressed pessimism about the ability of government to respond to the need for climate change adaptation strategies, as there is great resistance to changes to forest management objectives, regulations and operational plans. Dave Spittlehouse, with the MOF Research Branch, then stressed how important it is to start now assessing forest vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies. He explained how there are institutional and policy barriers to responding to climate change, such as the seed planting zones and other reforestation standards and guidelines that are designed for the current climate regime. Some of the potential strategies he listed include: identifying new areas for conservation, fire protection around communities, improving biodiversity protection, and revising stand management techniques, seed zones, species selection and rotation ages. Greg McKinnon, the Forest Sector Coordinator for Natural Resources Canada, ended the presentations with a primer on a risk-based approach to climate change adaptation that uses vulnerability assessment methodologies, and adaptive strategies are developed and evaluated.
Implications for Conservation
The issue of climate change and forestry has vast social, economic and environmental implications. A rapidly changing climate means that long-accepted management strategies for forestry and conservation will also have to change. It is more complicated to conserve ecosystems if the climate is moving the ecosystem northward, just as it would be difficult to devise a silviculture plan if the climate no longer supports forests. The Revelstoke workshop helped provide much needed insight into the issue, but despite all the discussion about the need for adaptation plans, it fell short on presenting potential strategies.
I believe that this issue presents a good opportunity for activists to argue that it is more important than ever to place higher value on forests as carbon sinks than as sources of fibre. If the impacts continue to mount, the politicians and policy makers could be persuaded to accept the need to phase out industrial clearcutting in favour of un-even aged silvicultural systems that maintain forest cover. The spectre of climate change should turn forestry on its head and result in strategies that include managing for deciduous trees instead of conifers, creating wide buffers around forest communities, planting of diverse species and limiting clearcutting to salvaging stands of dead and dying trees.
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A complete summary of this very timely and significant workshop will be available by the end of September on the Columbia Mountains Institute of Applied Ecology website, www.cmiae.org.
[From WS September/October 2005]