by Colin Graham
As a species we have been pretty slow to grasp the full meaning of the fact that the whole natural world organizes itself through ecosystems. During the last ten thousand or so years in which we have been living in settled farming communities, we have barged into, dragooned, and manipulated ecosystems as though they were structures of minor importance which we could more or less ignore. Only in recent decades have ecologists marshaled enough data to show that such systems can be primary structures whose health we abuse at our peril.
And abuse them we certainly do. Three years ago the US Academy of Sciences reached the conclusion that it could take up to fi fteen months to repair the depredations we infl ict on the planet every twelve months.
Now along comes the United Nations with its Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a massive summary of the conclusions reached by 1360 scientists from 95 countries. “Human activity,” they decide, “is putting such a strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted.”1 And, gloomily, the usually cautious Worldwatch Institute chimes in with the bald statement that “Global biological collapse has begun.”2
Yet it is going to be far from easy for the public to grasp the extent of the fi x we have got ourselves into; the scale and complexity of the problems ahead are going to tax even the toughest analysts. But assuming, collectively speaking, that we still have a normal sense of self preservation and the energy to change what we are doing wrong, we shall have to begin by correcting those parts of the global economy that are obviously out of kilter: unsustainable forest destruction, overfi shing to the point where we have eliminated all but 10% of the ocean’s top predators, oversaturating our agricultural fi elds with nitrate fertilizers whose leaching into rivers has led to biological dead zones at estuarine deltas, expanding city suburbs out over key farmland instead of growing them vertically, and so on.
As if all this were not enough of a challenge, we shall also have to deal with the steadily intrusive problems thrown up by global warming.
Take, for example, the worrying state of our fi sheries: Only when a score or more years have passed will we know whether, on balance, rising water temperatures will be good or bad for marine fi sh. At the moment the omens are mainly negative. For salmon, and especially for pinks and sockeye, Dr. David Welch of the federal fi sheries department is convinced that such fi sh will eventually fi nd their present habitat too hot and will be forced northward into arctic waters — where in fact they are already spawning on Banks Island.3 Meanwhile, warm-water fi sh from the south such as mackerel are feeding voraciously on small salmon smolt as they emerge from BC river deltas into open seas. It is too early to tell whether various migrants from the south will ultimately arrive in suffi cient volume to replace fully the vanishing BC salmon. But while our marine future is thus clouded by uncertainties, the prospects on shore of warming BC lands are almost dazzling — at least for the next few decades.4
During the November climate change conference in Montreal, scientists predicted that as warming develops, “British Columbia could become a garden of pecans, olives, sugar cane, oranges, lemons and cotton.”5
That the warming is now coming on with unexpected speed there can no longer be much doubt. In Western Siberia, an area the size of France and Germany combined is melting for the fi rst time since the last ice age.6 This is releasing an ominous quantity of methane, a gas twenty times worse than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse warmer. Various feedback loops are developing. Ice sheets which until now have been refl ecting the sun’s warmth back into space are melting and exposing the dark underlying peat bogs to the sun’s rays.
It is the north of Russia, Canada and Alaska that has been feeling the new heat fi rst, and so it will be the taiga areas of BC where black and white spruce predominate that “crazy forests” could develop, where melting permafrost loosens its grasp on the roots and the trees tip every which way. The subalpine Engelmann spruce could become similarly affected. In spite of these drawbacks there will come a major bonus: a continuing increase in the number of frostfree days. Today in the north these seldom exceed sixty.
On the other hand the Peace River district in the province’s northeast corner will be enjoying early benefi ts. Confi ned at present mainly to the production of cereal crops, its farmers will have the option of planting a considerable range of fruits and vegetables without the worry of killing frost. At the present time the cultivation of fruits and vegetables is limited mostly to the southeastern tip of Vancouver Island, the Lytton-Kamloops area, the Okanagan Valley, the southern portion of the Kootenay-Rocky Mountain trenches,7 and the lower Fraser Valley.
As the heat comes on, other valley bottoms such Quesnel and even Prince George should become agriculturally productive. As to the forests of the interior, the lodgepole pine, the Engelmann spruce and even the Douglas fi r should do fairly well at fi rst, and so should aspen, provided warm climate pathogens and pests of the bark beetle type are brought under control.7 But it is anyone’s guess as to how such trees will be able to handle extreme heat under semi-drought conditions.
The problem of getting enough water with which to produce mature crops will be governed by several factors that will vary with the time of year. Current climate models are predicting a moderate increase in rainfall for the province as a whole with occasional torrents coming down in sharp bursts. All but the highest glaciers are expected to melt away. While they are dissolving there should be a plentiful quantity of runoff coursing down valley bottoms during the spring and early summer periods. While the glaciers are still running there should be a great opportunity for double cropping. It will be during the late summer and early autumn months that problems of water supply could become diffi cult. Of course, the major crises will occur when the glaciers are gone. Success then will presumably depend on the extent to which excess runoff during the winter has been channeled into artifi cial lakes and valley ponds.
In assessing British Columbia’s food prospects a salient fact to keep in mind is the scarcity of rich soil. The province being largely mountainous, cultivation is limited mainly to valley bottoms and river estuaries. The grim fact is that out of a provincial total area of roughly 95 million hectares only some 3% is capable of growing crops at the present time.8 No wonder maintenance of the Agricultural Land Reserve is regarded by many as crucial.
The question of food futures is far from academic. As Ross Gelbspan points out in his latest book, Boiling Point, changing rainfall patterns and more severe droughts are already affecting the world’s crops. During the last four years world consumption of grain has regularly exceeded production. In a world expecting to have at least another 2.5 billion mouths to feed by mid-century, that is unwelcome news.9
As species struggle to adapt to new climate regimes, it is too much to expect that all transitions will be orderly. As I noted in an earlier article in this journal [“Mayhem Among the Ecosystems,” April/May 2003], tragic discontinuities will occur, as for example when checkerspot butterfl ies on this coast die of starvation because the fl owers on which they feed are late in blooming. As one scientist has put it, “Changing climate will not immediately result in movement of whole ecosystems but only of those generalized and opportunistic components which can rapidly colonize new environments.” 10 “In the forests of south BC,” writes another ecologist, “many species are at the southern limits of their physiological tolerance for temperature and water stresses.”11
Urgent questions therefore arise. For instance, will this eventually signal the die-out of pine needle type forests, giving way to broadleaf species favouring nuts and subtropical fruits? Those alive twenty years from now will probably know the answer.
To sum up, then, we can look forward to some golden years while the warming is in the early stages but if we and rest of the world fail to reduce greenhouse emissions by the sixty percent scientists claim to be essential, we shall be in for some nightmarish times.
***
FOOTNOTES 1. Ecosystems And Human Well—Being A Synthesis, Island Press, Washington DC, 2005. 137 pp. This is a summary of the 5 volume UN report 2. The Ecologist. Nov/Dec. 1998, P.38 3. Times Colonist, Victoria, BC. June 8, 2003 4. Globe And Mail, Oct. 28, 1999 5. Times Colonist, Ibid. 6. Guardian Weekly, Aug. 19 –25, 2005 7. A.L, Farley. Atlas Of British Columbia: People, Environment and Resources, University of British Columbia Press, 1979, p.48 8. Farley, Op. cit. 9. Ross Gelbspan, Boiling Point, Basic Books, NY, 2004, p. 59 10. Biodiversity In British Columbia;Our Changing Environment. Environment Canada, Ottawa, 1996, p.333 11. Ibid, p.335.